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The 2015 Telecommunications Industry Review:  An Anthology of Market Facts and Forecasts

 

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The 2015 Telecom Industry Review summarizes current conditions across the global telecommunications industry, providing analysis of multiple infrastructure and service segments. From fundamental background issues to detailed five-year forecasts accompanied by practical strategic advice, the Review provides a comprehensive summary of INSIGHT’s research reports throughout the year. In addition to five-year revenue and unit forecasts of telecommunications services, the Review provides an examination of the most important segments and technologies impacting the industry, including wireless demand, optical networking, Ethernet services, and cloud services. This report looks at the global telecommunications services and equipment market in each region: North America; Europe-Middle East-Africa; Asia and the Pacific Rim countries; and Latin America. Modest growth has returned to most telecom markets across the globe and the Review identifies the segments that will thrive over the second-half of the decade.


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    Report Excerpt

    1.1       Telecommunications Industry Economic Conditions

    The past year witnessed a pronounced upswing in the economic fortunes of the United States (US). The larger picture however was a sobering one; modest growth in most markets, significant economic slowdown in the hyper-growth rates enjoyed over the past decade in advancing economies, and renewed political and economic threats in some isolated countries. China and other emerging market economies in Asia and Latin America have slowed from the double-digit growth rates of the past decade, while India looks forward to the next half-decade with cautious optimism. While consumer and infrastructure spending is rising in most regions, other regions, such as Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, and sub-Saharan Africa, remain in a weak investment climate.................

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    Market Segmentation

     

    Telecommunications Industry Markets
                  By Geography
                                    United States
                                    North America
                                    Europe/Middle East/Africa
                                    Latin America/Caribbean
                                    Asia/Pacific
                  Carrier Revenue by Service
                                   Global Wireline and Wireless Revenues
                                   NA Wireline and Wireless Revenues
                                   US Wireline and Wireless Revenues
                                   EMEA Wireline and Wireless Revenues
                                   AP Wireline and Wireless Revenues
                                   LA Wireline and Wireless Revenues
                  Wireline Revenues and Demand by Service
                                  Access Revenue by Region
                                  US Access Revenue
                                  Broadband Revenue by Region
                                  US Broadband Revenue
                                  Access Lines by Region
                                  US Access Lines
                                  Broadband Subs by Region
                                  US Broadband Subs
                  Wireless Revenues and Demand by Region and US
                                 Wireless Revenue by Region and US
                                  Subscribers by Region and US
                                  Penetration of Population by Region and US
                  Wireless Data Technologies Comparison

    Next Generation Network Infrastructure
                  US VoIP Subscribers and Penetration
                  Operator Capex in Selected Geographies
                  Impacts of VoIP on International Telecommunications Services
                  Total US Public Ethernet Revenues

    Access Networks
                  US Wireline Switched Access Lines
                  US Wireless Subscribers
                  US Voice Services Penetration of Households
                  Broadband Communication Network Access Solutions
                  Worldwide Broadband Subscribers
                  Global Wireless Subscribers
                  Regional Wireless Penetration of Population
                  Historical US Wireless Subscribership Growth
                  Revenue Split between Non-Voice and Voice Wireless Revenue
                  Monthly Voice and Text Usage by Age

    OSS, BSS & Outsourcing
                  Outsourced Services Market Estimates by Region

    Present & Future Services
                  Mashup Revenue Opportunity for Telcos by Region
                  Financial Services & Equipment Revenue by Region
                  Operator Capex in Selected Geographies

    US Business and Consumer Markets

                 Classification of Mobile Phone Sales

                 Classification of Cellular Voice and Data Revenues

    Enterprise Markets
                  Classification of US Businesses
                                 US Business Distribution: All Business Sizes
                                 Business Establishments by Industry Sector & Business Size
                                 Business Lines: Distribution by Industry Sector
                  US Private Line Revenue
                  Managed Services Revenues by Region
                  Top-Tier Business Expenditures for Telecom Wireline Services
                  Top-Tier Business Expenditures for Telecom Wireless Services
                  US Healthcare Telecom Service Revenues
                  Global Market for Enterprise Mobility Solutions
                  Global Market for All UC Segments: Solutions, Services and Carrier Revenues
                  US Telecommunications Revenue by Market: Wireline Business, Wireline  
                         Residence, Wireless, Video
                  US MSO Commercial Service Revenues
                  Revenue Projection for Hosted PBX/VoIP Service in the Small Business Segment

     


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    Table of Contents

     

     

    Chapter I
    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
    1.1 Telecommunications Industry Economic Conditions
             1.1.1 Regional Economies and Communications Patterns
    1.2 Report Structure


    Chapter II
    BACKGROUND: TELECOMMUNICATION INDUSTRY MARKETS
    2.1 Global Markets
             2.1.1 Regional Economies and Communications Patterns
             2.1.2 Global Telecommunications Spending
             2.1.3 North American Telecommunications Spending
                      2.1.3.1 US Telecommunications Spending
             2.1.4 European, Middle East, and Africa Telecommunications Spending
             2.1.5 Asia-Pacific Telecommunications Spending
             2.1.6 Latin America-Caribbean Telecommunications Spending
    2.2 Wireline Market Trends
             2.2.1 Wireline Revenues
             2.2.2 Wireline Demand
    2.3 Wireless Market Trends
             2.3.1 Wireless Revenues
             2.3.2 Wireless Demand
             2.3.3 Wireless Technology



    Chapter III
    THE NEXT-GENERATION COMMUNICATIONS NETWORK:
    IMPROVEMENTS TO THE INFRASTRUCTURE

    3.1 Definitions of Network Topology
             3.1.1 End-Users
             3.1.2 Access Networks
             3.1.3 Metro Networks
             3.1.4 Core Networks
    3.2 Transmission Improvements
    3.3 Circuit Switching vs. Packet Switching Overview
    3.4 The Public Switched Telephone Network
             3.4.1 Evolution of the PSTN
             3.4.2 Central Offices
    3.5 Data Networks and VoIP
             3.5.1 Broadband Switches
             3.5.2 Data Core Networks
                      3.5.2.1 MPLS
             3.5.3 Data Metro Networks
             3.5.4 Data Access Networks
             3.5.5 Signaling and Support Structures for Data Networks
             3.5.6 Voice over Internet Protocol
             3.5.7 VoIP as Transport
             3.5.8 VoIP Operational Advantage
             3.5.9 VoIP as Value-Added Stage
    3.6 Carrier Ethernet Networks
             3.6.1 E-line Ethernet Access
             3.6.2 E-LAN
             3.6.3 Other Typologies: Dedicated vs. Switched
             3.6.4 Carrier Ethernet Market Forecast
    3.7 The Next Generation Network
             3.7.1 Gateways
             3.7.2 Softswitches
                      3.7.2.1 Economic Motivations
             3.7.3 Service Delivery Platforms
             3.7.4 IP Multimedia Subsystems
    3.8 Optical Networking
             3.8.1 Baseline Optical Transport Technologies
                      3.8.1.1 SONET/SDH
                      3.8.1.2 WDM
                      3.8.1.3 MPLS
                      3.8.1.4 Metro Ethernet
             3.8.2 Optical Transport Technology Overview
                      3.8.2.1 SONET/SDH
                      3.8.2.2 WDM
                      3.8.2.3 MPLS
                      3.8.2.4 Metro Ethernet
             3.8.3 Current Gaps in Baseline Transport Technologies
                      3.8.3.1 SONET/SDH
                      3.8.3.2 WDM
                      3.8.3.3 MPLS
                      3.8.3.4 Ethernet
             3.8.4 The Hybrid Approach to Optical Transport Technologies
                      3.8.4.1 Carrier Ethernet
                      3.8.4.2 GMPLS
                      3.8.4.3 ROADM
    3.9 Capital Expenditures Forecast


    Chapter IV
    THE ACCESS NETWORK: NARROWBAND AND BROADBAND
    4.1 Narrowband: The Decline of US Landlines
    4.2 Broadband Access Networks
             4.2.1 Broadband Access Forecasts
    4.3 Access Network Technology Options
             4.3.1 DSL
             4.3.2 Cable
             4.3.3 Bonded Copper
                      4.3.3.1 Technology
             4.3.4 Fiber
             4.3.5 Wireless
                      4.3.5.1 Global Wireless Trends
                      4.3.5.2 US Wireless Trends
             4.3.6 Fixed Mobile Convergence
             4.3.7 WiFi
             4.3.8 WiMAX
    4.4 Spending Patterns’ Impacts on Access and Beyond
             4.4.1 Telecom Spending by Consumers and Businesses



    Chapter V
    SUPPORTING THE INFRASTRUCTURE: OSSES, BSSES, AND OUTSOURCING
    5.1 Operations Support Systems Overview
    5.2 Operations Support Applications
    5.3 Business Operations Support
             5.3.1 Billing
                      5.3.1.1 Billing Mediation
                      5.3.1.2 Rating
                      5.3.1.3 Order Management
                      5.3.1.4 Data Collection
                      5.3.1.5 Policy Management
             5.3.2 Customer Care
             5.3.3 Business Management
    5.4 Network Operations Support
             5.4.1 Engineering and Planning
             5.4.2 Provisioning
             5.4.3 Trouble Repair
             5.4.4 Network Management
                      5.4.4.1 Fault Management
                      5.4.4.2 Configuration Management
                      5.4.4.3 Performance Management
                      5.4.4.4 Security Management
             5.4.5 Workforce Management
    5.5 OSS Market Revenue Estimates
             5.5.1 Impacts of Equipment Markets on OSSes
    5.6 The Impacts of Open Source Software on OSSes
             5.6.1 The Question of Intellectual Property
             5.6.2 Open Source Software Benefits
             5.6.3 Open Source Software Project Challenges
             5.6.4 Open Source Support: The Commercial License


    Chapter VI
    PRESENT AND FUTURE COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES MARKETS
    6.1 IP-Based Application Services
             6.1.1 Introduction & Definitions
             6.1.2 VoIP as a Non-Starter
             6.1.3 Key IP Service Trends
                      6.1.3.1 Residential Video Telephony Market
                      6.1.3.2 Fixed Mobile Convergence
                      6.1.3.3 File Sharing/Downloading & Multimedia Messaging
                      6.1.3.4 Streaming Services
                      6.1.3.5 Location-Based Services
    6.2 The Future of IP Services: Web 2.0
             6.2.1 Web 2.0 and Mashups
             6.2.2 Web 2.0 & the Carriers
             6.2.3 Web 2.0 Market Forecast
    6.3 The Future of IP Services: Mashups
             6.3.1 What We Found
             6.3.2 What Role for Telcos in Mashups?
             6.3.3 Mashup Market Forecast
    6.4 Mobile Phones’ Impacts on the Financial Sector
             6.4.1 Core Banking
             6.4.2 User Financial Applications for Mobile Phones
             6.4.3 Financial Services Segment Forecast
    6.5 Telecommunications Role in Improving the Environment
             6.5.1 Modeling the Benefits of Green
    6.6 The Future of Telecommunications
             6.6.1 IP Changes Everything
             6.6.2 Convergence Cuts Both Ways        
             6.6.3 The Road Ahead for Operators
             6.6.4 The Road Ahead for OEMs




    Chapter VII
    ENTERPRISE TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKETS
    7.1 US Business versus Consumer Spending Patterns
             7.1.1 Telecommunications Spending in Transition
             7.1.2 US Business versus Consumer Spending Forecast
    7.2 The Classification of Businesses by Size
             7.2.1 Distribution of Business by Size
             7.2.2 The Business Line Market Methodology and Analysis
             7.2.3 The Business Line Market in Small Enterprises
    7.3 Private Lines
             7.3.1 Evolution in the Private Line Services Market
             7.3.2 Circuit Types
                      7.3.2.1 56 Kbit/s Circuits
                      7.3.2.2 64 Kbit/s Clear-Channel Circuits (DS0)
                      7.3.2.3 Fractional T1 Circuits
                      7.3.2.4 T1 Circuits (DS1)
                      7.3.2.5 Fractional T3 Circuits (Fractional DS3)
                      7.3.2.6 T3 Circuits (DS3)
                      7.3.2.7 Optical Carrier Circuits
             7.3.3 SONET, IP and Private Lines
             7.3.4 Private Line Circuit Layout
             7.3.5 Redundancy & Restoration
             7.3.6 Private Line Alternatives
             7.3.7. Current Market Drivers
                      7.3.7.1 Enterprise Data Migration from IT to User
                      7.3.7.2 Increased Traffic on ISP Distribution Networks
                      7.3.7.3 Mobility and Private Lines
                      7.3.7.4 Video on Demand and Private Lines
             7.3.8 Market Forecast
    7.4 Managed Services & the Enterprise
             7.4.1 Why Managed Services?
             7.4.2 Industry Structure
             7.4.3 Managed Service Industry Forecast
                      7.4.3.1 US Managed Services Forecast Summary
                      7.4.3.2 Global Managed Services Forecast Summary
    7.5 Healthcare as a Fast Growing Vertical Industry
             7.5.1 Healthcare Industry Structure Ready for Change
             7.5.2 Market Estimate of Healthcare Telecom Spending
    7.6 The Mobile Workforce and Enterprise Applications
             7.6.1 The Key Enterprise Mobility Applications
                      7.6.1.1 FMC and VoIP
                      7.6.1.2 IM and E-mail
                      7.6.1.3 Conferencing and Collaboration
                      7.6.1.4 Mobility Machine-to-Machine Communications
                      7.6.1.5 Sales Force Automation
             7.6.2 Mobile Enterprise Market Forecasts
    7.7 The CATV MSOs’ Push into the Enterprise
             7.7.1 CATV Industry
             7.7.2 MSO Commercial Services: Big Opportunity, Major Challenges
             7.7.3 Deploying Commercial Services
             7.7.4 Market Forecast Summary
    7.8 Hosted Voice Services in the Small Enterprise
             7.8.1 The Small Business Market for Hosted PBX/VoIP Services
    7.9 Advanced Strategic Services: The Growth Engine for Wireline Business Services
             7.9.1 Advanced Strategic Services
             7.9.2 Importance of Strategic Services
             7.9.3 Market Forecast Summary


    Table of Figures

    Chapter I
    I-1       Global Carrier Revenue by Region, 2014-2019 ($Billions)
    I-2       Global Wireline and Wireless Revenues, 2020-2020 ($Billions)
    I-3       US Wireline and Wireless Revenues, 2015-2020 ($Billions)


    Chapter II
    II-1      US LTE Coverage, 2010-2014


    Chapter III

    III-1     Public Communication Network Architecture
    III-2     SONET Ring Configuration
    III 3     Hierarchy of Broadband Switch Functions
    III 4     Typical National Data Core Network
    III-5     E-Line Point-to-Point Service Type
    III-6     E-LAN Multipoint-to-Multipoint Service Type
    III-7     Total US Public Ethernet Revenues, 2014-2019 ($Millions)
    III-7     Softswitch Architecture Diagram
    III-8     Circuit vs. Packet Switching of Internet Traffic
    III-9     SDP Service Provider Network Architecture
    III-10   STS-1 Frame Structure
    III-11   STM-1 Frame Structure
    III-12   Four-Channel DWDM System
    III-13   Schematic of an MPLS Network
    III-14   Label Header Structure
    III-15   MPLS over WDM Core




    Chapter IV

    IV-1     US Voice Services Penetration of Households, 2014-2019
    IV-2     Worldwide Broadband Subscribers, 2014-2019 (Millions)
    IV-3     HFC Architecture Providing Video and Voice Services
    IV-4     Typical Backhaul Configuration
    IV-5     Typical DSLAM Backhaul Application
    IV-6     Global Wireless Subscribers, 2014-2019 (Millions)
    IV-7     US Wireless Subscribers, 1997-2017 (Millions)
    IV-8     US Wireless Average Minutes Per Local Call, 2008-2010
    IV-9     Revenue Split between Non-Voice and Voice Wireless Revenue, 2009 and 2010 ($Billions)
    IV-10   Phone Usage Habits, Women versus Men, January 2011
    IV-11   Monthly Voice and Text Usage by Age, January 2011
    IV-12   Common Fixed Mobile Convergence Scenarios
    IV-13   Taxonomy of US Business and Consumer Telecommunication Spending
    IV-14   Business vs. Consumer Mobile Phones Sales 2013-2019 ($Millions)
    IV-15   Business vs. Consumer Cellular Voice Market, 2013-2019 ($Millions)
    IV-16   Business vs. Consumer Cellular Data Market, 2013-2019 ($Millions)


    Chapter V
    V-1      Operations Support Systems Dataflow
    V-2      Business Operations Systems Dataflow
    V-3      Telecommunications Management Network Functional Architecture
    V-4      Total Worldwide OSS Sales Revenue, 2011-2016 ($Billions)
    V-5      Operator Capex in Selected Geographies, 2009-2017 ($Billions)


    Chapter VI
    VI-1     Web 2.0 Business Models
    VI-2     Global Opportunities for Web 2.0 Applied to Telecommunications, 2011-2016 ($Millions)
    VI-3     Logical Schematic of a Commercial Mashup
    VI-4     Global Mashup Revenue Opportunity for Telcos, 2010-2015 ($Millions)
    VI-5     Taxonomy of Revenue Opportunities in the Financial Domains
    VI-6     Global Financial Services & Equipment Revenue, 2012-2017 ($Millions)
    VI-7     Telecom Networking Before and After IP
    VI-8     Operator Capex in Selected Geographies, 2009-2017 ($Billions)

    CHAPTER VII
    VII-1    Taxonomy of US Business and Consumer Telecommunication Spending
    VII-2    US Business vs. Consumer Mobile Phones Sales 2013-2019 ($Millions)
    VII-3    US Business vs. Consumer Cellular Voice Market, 2013-2019 ($Millions)
    VII-4    US Business vs. Consumer Cellular Data Market, 2013-2019 ($Millions)
    VII-5    Capacities of 64 Kbit/s, T1, and T3 Circuits
    VII-6    Typical Layout for a Full Circuit
    VII-7    ISDN Switched Backup
    VII-8    SONET Rings
    VII-9    Fiber-to-Fiber Redundancy
    VII-10  Cable-to-Cable Physical Redundancy (Diverse Cable Redundancy)
    VII-11  Total Private Line Revenue 2013-2018 ($Millions)
    VII-12  US Managed Services Revenues, 2013-2018 ($Billions)
    VII-13  Global Managed Services Revenues, 2013-2018 ($Billions)
    VII-14  Global Managed Services Market by Region, 2013-2018 ($Billions)
    VII-15  Total US Healthcare Telecom Service Revenues, 2012-2017 ($Millions)
    VII-16 Global Market for Enterprise Mobility Solutions, 2011-2016 ($Millions)
    VII-17  US Telecommunications Revenue by Market, 2012 ($Billions)
    VII-18  US MSO Commercial Service Revenues, 2013-2018 ($Billions)
    VII-19  Revenue Projection for Hosted PBX/VoIP Service in the Small Business Segment , 2010-2015 ($Millions)
    VII-20  Advanced Strategic Services Framework
    VII-21  Telecommunications Value Chain
    VII-22  US Advanced Strategic Services Revenues Summary ($Billions)

     


    Table of Tables
     

    CHAPTER II

    II-1     Global Carrier Revenue by Region, 2015-2020 (Billions)
    II-2     US Carrier Revenue, 2015-2020 (Billions)
    II-3     Global Wireline and Wireless Revenues, 2015-2020 (Billions)
    II-4     NA Wireline and Wireless Revenues, 2015-2020 ($Billions)
    II-5     US Wireline and Wireless Revenues, 2015-2020 ($Billions)
    II-6     EMEA Wireline and Wireless Revenues, 2015-2020 ($Billions)
    II-7     AP Wireline and Wireless Revenues, 2015-2020 ($Billions)
    II-8     LA Wireline and Wireless Revenues, 2015-2020 ($Billions)
    II-9     Global Wireline Revenue by Region, 2015-2020 ($Billions)
    II-10   Access Revenue by Region, 2015-2020 ($Billions)
    II-11   US Access Revenue, 2015-2020 ($Billions)
    II-12   Broadband Revenue by Region, 2015-2020 ($Billions)
    II-13   US Broadband Revenue, 2015-2020 ($Billions)
    II-14   Access Lines by Region, 2015-2020 (Millions)
    II-15   US Access Lines, 2015-2020 (Millions)
    II-16   Broadband Subs by Region, 2015-2020 (Millions)
    II-17   US Broadband Subs, 2015-2020 (Millions)
    II-18   Global Wireless Revenue by Region, 2015-2020 ($Billions)
    II-19   Wireless Subs by Region, 2015-2020 (Millions)
    II-20   NA Wireless Subscriber Penetration, 2015-2020 (Millions)
    II-21   US Wireless Subscriber Penetration, 2015-2020 (Millions)
    II-22   EMEA Wireless Subscriber Penetration, 2015-2020 (Millions)
    II-23   AP Wireless Subscriber Penetration, 2015-2020 (Millions)
    II-24   LA Wireless Subscriber Penetration, 2015-2020 (Millions)
    II-25   Wireless Data Technologies Comparison
    II-26   US Wireless Carriers 4G LTE Coverage as of December 2014


    Chapter III

    III 1    Definitions of Digital Private Line Services
    III 2    SONET Data Rates
    III-3   Network Locations of Broadband Switches
    III-4   Downstream DSL Bit-rates vs. Reach (Mbit/s)
    III-5   US VoIP Subscribers and Penetration, 2014-2019 (Millions)
    III-6   Characteristics of Ethernet Service Varieties
    III-7   Total US Public Ethernet Revenues, 2014-2019 ($Millions)
    III-8   Gateway Definitions
    III-9   Softswitch Advantages/Disadvantages
    III-10 Economic Benefits of Softswitch Technology
    III-11 Strategies to Increase Network Service Margins
    III-12 Interrelationship between STM, STS, OC, and Gbit/s
    III-13 ITU’s Laser Grid
    III-14 Operator Capex in Selected Geographies 2013-2017 ($ Billions)



    Chapter IV

    IV-1   US Wireline Switched Access Lines, Penetration 2014-2019 (Millions)
    IV-2   US Wireless Subscribers, 2015-2020 (Millions)
    IV-3   Broadband Communication Network Access Solutions
    IV-4   Versions and Features of xDSL
    IV-5   Consumer VoWLAN/Cellular Service Scenario: Advantages and Disadvantages
    IV-6   US Telecommunications Profitability from Consumer and Business Services, 2013-2019 ($Millions)
    IV-7   Business vs. Consumer Mobile Phones Sales 2013-2019 ($Millions)
    IV-8   Business vs. Consumer Cellular Voice Market, 2013-2019 ($Millions)
    IV-9   Business vs. Consumer Cellular Data Market, 2013-2019 ($Millions)



    Chapter V
    V-1    Operations Support System Definitions Summary
    V-2    Related OSS Definitions
    V-3    Worldwide OSS Sales by Region, 2011-2016 ($Billions)
    V-4    Operator Capex in Selected Geographies, 2013-2017 ($Billions)



    Chapter VI
    VI-1  Green Communications Portfolio of Product Domains, Services and Applications


    Chapter VII

    VII-1   Consumer and Business Telecommunications Revenue Stream Breakdown
    VII-2   US Telecommunications Revenues from Consumers and Businesses, 2013-2019 ($Millions)
    VII-3   US Business vs. Consumer Mobile Phones Sales 2013-2019 ($Millions)
    VII-4   US Business vs. Consumer Cellular Voice Market, 2013-2019 ($Millions)
    VII-5   US Business vs. Consumer Cellular Data Market, 2013-2019 ($Millions)
    VII-6   US Business Distribution: All Business Sizes
    VII-7   Business Establishments by Industry Sector and Business Size: Small Enterprises vs. All Other Segments
    VII-8   Business Lines: Distribution by Industry Sector
    VII-9   Business Lines by Industry Sector and Business Size: Small Enterprises vs. Large and Medium Enterprises
    VII-10 Digital Services Hierarchy
    VII-11 SONET/Optical Carrier Hierarchy
    VII-12 Impact of “Forces” on Private Line Revenue
    VII-13 Total Private Line Revenue 2013-2018 ($Millions)
    VII-14 Private Line Revenue, Local vs. Long Distance, 2013-2018 ($Millions)
    VII-15 Managed Services Segments
    VII-16 US Managed Services Revenue, 2013-2018 ($Billions)
    VII-17 Global Managed Services Revenues, 2013-2018 ($Billions)
    VII-18 Healthcare Market Segments
    VII-19 Healthcare Segment Dimensions and Trends
    VII-20 Business Lines by Industry Sector and Business Size: Small Enterprises vs. Large and Medium Enterprises
    VII-21 ILECs & MSOs Operating Territories Covered

     

     


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